Principles and methods of forsite research in public management and administration
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.34132/pard2021.12.05Keywords:
foresight, public administration, bibliometric analysis, expert panels, scenario analysis, multicriteria analysisAbstract
The work is devoted to the possibility of using Foresight to predict the development of state and public administration processes.
The aim of the work is to review and systematize key aspects, principles and methods of conducting foresight research that can be used in state and public administration.
The article discusses the basic principles of foresight research, among which the principles of involvement, communication, consistency, coordination, and diversity are distinguished; the main stages of foresight research are highlighted.
Foresight studies can differ in their level depending on the scale of the study area and in the time horizon, depending on the time interval for which the forecast is made.
Sources of providing research with scientific and technical information can be scientometric databases such as Scopus, Web of Science, Orbit, and the like. For its analysis, various indicators are used, such as the citation index, the Hirsch index, etc.
The basic procedure for most Foresight projects is expert panels. It may differ in the way the expert group is formed, the method of collecting expert information and the methods of its processing.
The most commonly used tools for analyzing different variants of future are scenario and multicriteria analysis. To construct scenarios of the future, the methods of the predictive graph and "decision tree", as well as cognitive modeling, are used.
Multi-criteria analysis is defined as the structuring of the process of assessing and choosing alternative scenarios in conditions of high uncertainty and the presence of conflicts of expert assessments. Its most famous and widespread methods are AMH and ANM and the method of Pareto optimal solutions.
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